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What will be the likely GST rates?

The dual GST which is scheduled for introduction in the country from April 2010 is still very much a ‘known unknown’, to use a by now famous expression. It is known that the dual GST is coming but what is unknown is its final shape and structure. One key unknown is the aggregate rate of the dual GST that will finally be in effect. 

It has historically been the case in India, unlikely the global experience, that indirect taxes have constituted the primary source of revenues for both the federal Government and, in the Indian context, the state governments as well. 



 

This needs to change, for a variety of reasons. The intention is therefore to ensure that while absolute tax revenues will all grow in tandem with the country’s economic growth, as also the expenditure needs of the Government, the composition of federal revenues changes in order to place a relatively larger reliance on direct taxes and and a relatively lesser degree of reliance on indirect taxes. 

This is sought to be achieved by both a broadbasing of the tax base, together with elimination of exemptions, and by a moderation of the tax rates in themselves, particularly indirect tax rates. 

If this be the context for a discussion on the appropriate aggregate rate of the GST, it will be fair and reasonable to assume that GST should bring about a reduction in the overall indirect tax rate. 

To expand on the point, there is, today, a multiple tax structure at the federal level relating to the excise duty or CENVAT, being the tax on goods, and the service tax, being the tax on services. While the excise tax is in excess of 16 per cent, the service tax is approximately 4 percentage points lower. 

A further complication is that the excise duty is not a single rate but is comprised of rates both lower and in excess of the 16 per cent. At the State level again, the current position is complex. While the general State VAT rate is 12.5 per cent, there are again other rates which are both in excess of and lower than the aforesaid rate. 

On the understanding however that the typical excise duty/State VAT rates are 16 per cent and 12.5 per cent, the aggregate indirect tax that is typically charged on manufacture and sale of goods in India would be the total of these two taxes. 

This is however incorrect since the excise duty is paid on the manufacturer’s sales price (which need not correspond to the retail selling price) whereas the VAT is effectively paid on the price at which such manufactured goods are ultimately sold in retail. 

In other words, the bases on which the respective taxes on goods are paid, at the federal and State level, are different. Further, the State VAT is also charged on the excise duty, thereby leading to cascading. In order to correctly understand the aggregate incidence of the present indirect tax, it is necessary to compute it on a common base, which arguably could be the retail sales price. 

The aggregate incidence of tax is approximately 36 on the retail sales price of 162. This works out to approximately 22 per cent. Of course, the figures will change if the value addition percentages were to change but the broad point is that typically the aggregate incidence of indirect tax at present, on a common retail sales price base, would range from 22 per cent to say 25 per cent. 

If an assumption were to be made that the aggregate incidence of tax under the dual GST would need to reduce, a fair expectation would then be that the aggregate incidence of the dual GST should be approximately 20 per cent. 

There is apparently a consensus of opinion in the relevant decision making quarters that this should indeed be the case. However, the further point to be noted is that the dual GST, as understood, will be charged on a common base. We do not yet know what that common base would be, but it appears certain that the present base of the excise/CENVAT, of the manufacturers sales price, would not be relevant in the GST. 

This would mean that the federal GST on goods would no longer be a manufacturing tax but would be predicated on a yet to be defined taxable event. 

It could be that the federal GST, as also the State GST, could both be predicated on supplies of goods, to be defined in an appropriate fashion. It must be noted here that globally the VAT/GST is typically based on a set of rules which define the place as also the time of supply of goods in order for the tax to apply. 

A related point would be that under dual GST, there would be no cascading. Thus both the federal and State GST would be charged on an appropriate common base, thereby eliminating the problem associated with a tax on tax. This will further reduce the overall tax incidence. 

The last relevant point in connection with this discussion is regarding the respective rates of the federal GST and State GST. There is no news yet as to what these respective rates might be, but there is some discussion on a 12 per cent federal GST and an 8 per cent State GST but it could be that they could both be at 10 per cent each, thus aggregating to the 20 per cent that has been discussed before. 

Also, there have been past recommendations in this regard by the Kelkar Task Force, which had recommended, among other things, an aggregate GST of 20 per cent, comprising a federal GST of 12 per cent and a State GST of 8 per cent. 

It will, therefore, be interesting to know what the final recommendations of the Empowered Committee would be in regard to the dual GST rates to be brought into effect from April 2010.

Source : Business Standard - Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, dated 24/12/2007

 

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