Thanks to the implementation of Value-Added Tax (VAT), between 2002-03 and 2005-06, the compound annual growth rate of non-tax revenue is 22 per cent and of tax revenue is 12 per cent. Revenue collection has gone up from Rs 901.80 crore in 2005-06 to Rs1022.01 crore in 2006-07 and Rs 953.17 crore in the first 10 months of this year (up to January 2008).

Successive annual plans have gone up from Rs 423.21 crore in 2002-03 to Rs1069.96 crore in 2006-07. However, plan utilisation as a percentage of the outlay, which went up from78 per cent in 2002-03 to 93 per cent in 2005-06, came down to 89 per cent in 2006-07.

“The existence of unemployment and poverty in the face of the high rate of growth of the economy of the state appear paradoxical,” the survey notes. It also goes on to say: “The dynamics of migration require to be understood in all its dimensions.”  Sounding a note of caution about infrastructure, the survey says: “The magnitude of financial resources required on account of renewal of the existing infrastructure and/or creation of new infrastructure is of a very high order.”

It also notes that the government has enacted the Guarantee Ceiling Act and set up the Consolidated Sinking Fund with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to manage the state’s future liabilities. The setting up of a Pension Liability Fund to finance the pensions for government employees retiring in the next 10 years has also begun. For the first time in the country, it has undertaken a risk assessment of government guarantees in association with ICRA.

Noting that 40 per cent of the State’s plan expenditure is on social services, it says what is necessary is to ensure that non-development-non-plan expenditure is “slashed” and development expenditure, which results in the creation of productive economic assets to generate further revenue streams (including human resources investment in education, health, water supply and sanitation, and civic amenities) does not suffer in the process.

State Domestic Product:-The primary and secondary sectors of the economy, where information regarding goods and services as well as intermediate consumption is available, account for 40 per cent of the State Domestic Product (SDP). Railways, communications, banking and insurance, and public administration account for another 12 per cent. But, the report goes on to lament, the rest of the sectors, which account for the remaining 48 per cent of the SDP cannot be accounted for. Ironically just 40 per cent of the SDP is estimated directly, while the remaining 60 per cent has to be estimated indirectly, at the national level. Does this mean that Goa’s vaunted high per capita income is based on guesstimates?

Agriculture: The Eleventh Five Year Plan envisages a doubling of growth in agriculture to bring about a more inclusive growth in the economy. But, the report notes that while the contribution of agriculture to Goa’s SDP has declined steeply over the years, the 2001 census shows that nearly 10 per cent of Goa’s workers were cultivators, while nearly 7 per cent were agricultural labourers, a decline of 26.6 per cent and 20 per cent from the 1991 census.

It notes, though, that there is considerable scope for growth in dairy. Poultry and floriculture, where demand within the state is met by imports from other states.
Unemployment and in-migration: Unemployment figures in Goa are 11.1 per cent in rural areas and 8.7 per cent in urban areas. The total number of job seekers  is just over a lakh, according to Employment Exchange figures. But, it notes, the problem appears to be more of underemployment than unemployment.

On the question of in-migration, it notes that Goa’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.8, well below replacement levels of 2.1, and so the statte’s rising population can only indicate a high level of in-migration. The 2001 census indicated that migrants formed 17 per cent of Goa’s population, with 2.28 lakh people migrating into the state and nearly 10,000 migrating out of the state.

It says: “The observed phenomenon of in-migration to take up unskilled and high-skilled jobs alongside out-migration of semi-skilled and high-skilled personnel implies a mismatch between supply and demand in different fields of economic activity within the state.” Vigorous efforts will be required to ensure a better fit between qualifications and job profiles so that the potential of the state’s youth is realised, the report concludes.